For a modeled, mature 150-room U.S. Hotel Indigo, the strongest defensible estimate is approximately $3.04 million, $3.80 million, or $4.56 million of annual hotel EBITDA in Conservative, Base, and Upside scenarios. This is an earnings proxy available to ownership before interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization, financing principal, capital spending, and personal taxes—not take-home pay.
Modeled annual hotel EBITDA for 150 rooms at the Item 19 average RevPAR.
ScenarioHistoric 2025 result for the 52-hotel Mature Hotel population.
Official70.3% of U.S. Brand System Hotels qualified for the Item 19 cohort.
Official5% Royalty Fee plus 3.5% Services Contribution, both based on Gross Rooms Revenue.
Official2024 BLS median wage for lodging managers in traveler accommodation.
BenchmarkWhat does Hotel Indigo Item 19 actually measure?
Officially, Item 19 measures room-demand and room-rate performance—not owner earnings. For fiscal 2025, it reports results for 52 U.S. Mature Hotels. A Mature Hotel had been open for at least two full years as of December 31, 2025, had fewer than 10% of rooms out of order, was licensed or owned/managed by Holiday Hospitality Franchising, LLC or an affiliate, and was not in default.
The 52-hotel cohort came from 74 U.S. Brand System Hotels at year-end 2025. Item 20 reports all 74 as licensed outlets, while a note states that five were managed by an affiliate. Item 20 lists zero company-owned outlets. That mixed licensed/affiliate-managed cohort is useful for room-performance context, but it is not a pure owner-operated or franchisee-profit population.
| 2025 Item 19 metric | Average | Median | Observed range | Above average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 70.5% | 69.4% | 46.4%–97.9% | 25 of 52 |
| Average Daily Room Rate (ADR) | $189.65 | $180.45 | $101.89–$292.88 | 21 of 52 |
| Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) | $133.62 | $122.22 | $56.42–$266.17 | 20 of 52 |
| Enterprise Contribution | 89.6% | 91.6% | 71.9%–99.5% | 34 of 52 |
FDD source: Hotel Indigo 2026 Franchise Disclosure Document, Item 19, pp. 94–97; Item 20, pp. 97–103. Item 19 says the historic figures are not projections, new hotels will not initially qualify as Mature Hotels, results can differ materially, and the hotel-supplied data were not independently audited.
How is the annual owner-earnings range calculated?
The estimate applies a broad U.S. hotel EBITDA-to-RevPAR relationship to Hotel Indigo’s official 2025 RevPAR. It is an estimated EBITDA-like owner-earnings proxy for a mature 150-room hotel, not a franchisor-reported result. The Base case uses the official $133.62 average RevPAR; Conservative and Upside use explicit analytical values at 80% and 120% of that average.
- Room count: 150 rooms, the typical Hotel Indigo format used in Item 7. A buyer must recalculate for the actual property.
- Scenario spread: $106.90, $133.62, and $160.34 RevPAR. The 80%/100%/120% spread is editorial analysis, not an FDD distribution or probability forecast.
- Profitability factor: 0.5191, calculated from STR/CoStar’s 2024 U.S. hotel EBITDA per available room divided by U.S. hotel RevPAR. It is a broad industry proxy, not a Hotel Indigo margin.
- Revenue-mix assumption: The factor implicitly imports the broad sample’s relationship between room revenue, non-room revenue, and operating costs. Hotel Indigo food-and-beverage and meeting-space economics may differ materially.
- Expense treatment: The broad EBITDA benchmark is treated as an all-in operating result. Hotel Indigo Royalty Fees, Services Contribution, payroll, manager compensation, occupancy costs, and other normal operating expenses are therefore not subtracted a second time.
- Excluded from owner cash: interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization, financing principal, personal taxes, capital expenditures, and any cash placed in a Capital Reserve Account.
| Scenario | Modeled RevPAR | Annual room revenue | Estimated hotel EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $106.90 | $5.85M | $3.04M |
| Base | $133.62 | $7.32M | $3.80M |
| Upside | $160.34 | $8.78M | $4.56M |
Estimated hotel EBITDA for a mature 150-room U.S. property; values are independent scenarios, not Item 19 results.
Interpretation: The $1.52 million distance between the Conservative and Upside scenarios is produced entirely by the explicit RevPAR spread. It is not evidence that a new property will fall inside this range.
Sources and calculation: Hotel Indigo 2026 FDD, Item 19, pp. 94–97 and Item 7, pp. 53–54; STR/CoStar 2024 U.S. hotel performance and profitability data. Values rounded after full-precision calculation.
How much can local RevPAR change the earnings result?
RevPAR is the largest modeled earnings driver. Applying the same 150-room structure and broad EBITDA factor to Item 19’s observed low, median, average, and high RevPAR produces an analytical range from about $1.60 million to $7.56 million. These are derived sensitivities, not predictions, and the endpoints may reflect properties that are structurally unlike a buyer’s proposed hotel.
Each marker uses an official 2025 RevPAR observation and the same independent 150-room EBITDA formula.
Interpretation: In this model, each $10 change in annual RevPAR changes hotel EBITDA by approximately $284,000 for a 150-room property. That sensitivity makes market selection, pricing, occupancy, and room availability more consequential than minor fixed-fee differences.
Sources and calculation: Official RevPAR observations from Hotel Indigo 2026 FDD, Item 19, pp. 94–97; independent calculation using the 2024 STR/CoStar EBITDA PAR-to-RevPAR factor. The low and high are observed cohort endpoints, not scenario probabilities.
How do Hotel Indigo franchise fees affect cash available to an owner?
The clearest recurring percentage burden is 8.5% of Gross Rooms Revenue: a 5% Royalty Fee plus a 3.5% Services Contribution. This is official FDD evidence for the current U.S. offer. Additional loyalty, distribution, technology, training, and capital-reserve obligations can materially reduce cash, but several depend on booking channel, qualifying revenue, room count, vendor, or franchisor requirements.
| Recurring obligation | FDD basis | 150-room Base illustration | Treatment in estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royalty Fee | 5% of Gross Rooms Revenue | $365,785 | Illustrated separately; not subtracted twice from broad EBITDA |
| Services Contribution | 3.5% of Gross Rooms Revenue | $256,049 | Illustrated separately; not subtracted twice from broad EBITDA |
| Technology Services Fee | $17.75 per room per month | $31,950 | Assumed embedded in broad operating benchmark |
| Cloud PMS fees | $6.25 per room per month; plus $0.36 implementation fee for 48 months | $11,250 + $648 | Assumed embedded in broad operating benchmark |
| IHG One Rewards Contribution | 4.55% of Qualifying Full Folio Revenue; separate Business Rewards rate | Not estimated | Qualifying-revenue mix is not disclosed |
| Capital Reserve | Up to 5% of Gross Revenue annually, if required | Not estimated | Cash reserve/capital spending is below the EBITDA proxy |
FDD source: Hotel Indigo 2026 FDD, Item 6, pp. 27–50. The two percentage-fee illustrations use Base-case room revenue as a practical Gross Rooms Revenue approximation. Actual GRR follows the FDD’s broader room-revenue definition and can differ. The Capital Reserve uses Gross Revenue, a different and broader denominator, so it must not be added mechanically to the 8.5% GRR burden.
Does active owner involvement increase annual earnings?
Potentially, but only as compensation for work performed—not as passive profit. Item 15 allows the owner to exercise direct management control only if Holiday Hospitality Franchising, LLC approves the owner to manage the hotel. The licensor may require a qualified management company or experienced General Manager, Director of Sales, and Food & Beverage Director. Each hotel must have its own qualified General Manager and an exclusive Director of Sales.
Manager-run Base case
Estimated hotel EBITDA after the broad benchmark’s normal operating payroll and management-cost treatment. This is residual business performance before debt, capital spending, and taxes.
Owner-operator Base benefit
Estimated hotel EBITDA plus $66,880 of imputed lodging-manager labor value. The added amount compensates the owner for active work and is not passive business profit.
| Owner role | Conservative | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manager-run pre-tax EBITDA proxy | $3.04M | $3.80M | $4.56M |
| Owner-operator benefit, including $66,880 labor value | $3.11M | $3.86M | $4.62M |
Role sources: Hotel Indigo 2026 FDD, Item 15, pp. 88–89; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2024 median annual wage of $66,880 for lodging managers in traveler accommodation. BLS wage data exclude self-employed owner compensation and do not establish the market pay of an experienced upscale-hotel General Manager. A third-party management-company fee is not disclosed and is not estimated.
What could move actual owner earnings outside the range?
Actual owner earnings can fall below or rise above the scenario range because the model has no same-brand profit-and-loss statement. The largest uncertainty is whether a specific Hotel Indigo’s total revenue and cost structure resemble the broad 2024 U.S. hotel sample used for the EBITDA factor.
- Market-level RevPARHotel Indigo’s 2025 Mature Hotel RevPAR ranged from $56.42 to $266.17. Demand generators, competition, seasonality, room supply, airport or downtown exposure, and pricing execution can dominate the result.
- Food-and-beverage economicsThe official Hotel Indigo development profile emphasizes destination restaurants and bars. Non-room revenue can improve total revenue, but kitchens, bars, events, and meeting services add labor, food cost, utilities, and operating complexity.
- Management and payrollItem 15 may require experienced dedicated leaders. Wage rates, staffing ratios, union exposure, benefits, management-company fees, and owner qualifications vary by property and market.
- Booking-channel mixLoyalty contributions, travel-agent commissions, Global Distribution System fees, direct-connect charges, group-and-meeting fees, and digital marketing charges vary with how rooms are sold.
- Capital spending and reserve fundingEBITDA is before depreciation and capital expenditures. A required Capital Reserve of up to 5% of Gross Revenue, renovation work, furniture replacement, or a property-improvement plan can materially reduce cash distributions.
- FinancingInterest and principal are outside the operating estimate. A highly leveraged acquisition or development may produce far less cash available to the owner even when hotel EBITDA is positive.
- Ramp-up and cohort mismatchItem 19 covers hotels open for at least two full years and excludes hotels with substantial out-of-order inventory or default. A new development, conversion, or recently transferred hotel may not perform like the mature cohort.
What should a buyer verify before relying on this estimate?
A buyer should replace broad assumptions with property-specific evidence. The FTC advises buyers to evaluate Item 19’s basis and ask for written substantiation. For Hotel Indigo, the decisive work is obtaining comparable-property profit-and-loss evidence, validating the local RevPAR forecast, and separating operating EBITDA from capital and financing cash flows.
- Request the written substantiation for the 2026 Item 19 figures, including the hotel list, room counts, ownership or management status, and methodology.
- Ask which of the 52 Mature Hotels most closely match the proposed market, room count, development path, service model, food-and-beverage program, and age.
- Obtain actual or anonymized franchisee profit-and-loss statements showing rooms revenue, food-and-beverage revenue, payroll, occupancy costs, management fees, franchise fees, distribution costs, repairs, reserve funding, and EBITDA.
- Interview current and former licensees from Item 20 about manager compensation, management-company charges, capital projects, loyalty and channel fees, and cash distributions.
- Confirm in writing whether the owner is approved to manage, which dedicated positions are required, and whether a management company or affiliate manager is a condition of approval.
- Build debt service, taxes, replacement reserves, renovation capital, and personal compensation below the operating model rather than treating EBITDA as take-home pay.
What is the defensible Hotel Indigo owner-earnings takeaway?
The strongest defensible range is approximately $3.0 million to $4.6 million of annual pre-tax hotel EBITDA for a modeled mature 150-room U.S. Hotel Indigo, with a Base scenario near $3.8 million. It is a scenario-based earnings proxy, not an official Item 19 profit or owner-compensation figure. The strongest official evidence is the 2025 average RevPAR of $133.62 for 52 Mature Hotels.
The most important earnings driver is property-level RevPAR. The largest unresolved uncertainty is the absence of a same-brand profit-and-loss disclosure showing total revenue, labor, management costs, food-and-beverage economics, franchise charges, capital spending, and cash distributions. Before underwriting the opportunity, a buyer should verify Item 19 substantiation, obtain property-specific operating statements, and test the model against current and former Hotel Indigo licensee interviews.