Annual owner earnings estimate
$31,000–$104,000
A reasonable manager-run planning range for one fixed Doc Popcorn unit is about $31,000 to $104,000 in annual pre-tax owner earnings, with a modeled base case near $63,000. This is not a franchisor-reported result. The 2026 Franchise Disclosure Document does not disclose sales, profit, or owner compensation, so the range uses a fixed-location industry revenue benchmark and a broad food-service net-income proxy. An active owner who replaces a paid manager could receive a larger owner-operator benefit of roughly $96,000 to $169,000, but the added amount is compensation for work performed rather than passive business profit.
Independent estimate
This estimate is an independent analytical scenario, not an Item 19 financial performance representation by Doc Popcorn Franchising L.L.C. It combines identified facts from the 2026 FDD with separately identified U.S. Census Bureau, Internal Revenue Service, and Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarks. Actual results can differ materially because of location, unit format, sales volume, labor, occupancy, financing, owner involvement, seasonality, and execution.
Data basis
Legal franchisor: Doc Popcorn Franchising L.L.C. Offer analyzed: fixed PopKiosk and PopShop units under the U.S. 2026 FDD. Item 19 status: no financial performance representation. System population: 78 franchised outlets and no company-owned outlets at the end of 2025. External benchmarks: 2022 Economic Census NAICS 722515, 2022 IRS corporation returns for Food Services and Drinking Places, and 2024 national median pay for Food Service Managers. Checked: July 18, 2026. FDD references are shown by year, Item, and page because no matching official public copy was verified.
$63K
Base manager-run earnings
Pre-tax residual after the broad benchmark’s reported operating deductions; before personal taxes and debt principal.
$804K
Revenue center
Average 2022 receipts per employer establishment in NAICS 722515, not Doc Popcorn sales.
7.8%
Base margin proxy
IRS aggregate net income divided by total receipts for a broader food-service corporate population.
9%
Current revenue-linked fees
6% royalty, 1% Advertising Fund, and 2% required local advertising, before fixed technology and POS fees.
78
Franchised outlets
FDD Item 20 year-end 2025 total; the system reported no company-owned comparison outlets.
Item 19 evidence
What does the 2026 Doc Popcorn FDD actually say about earnings?
Officially, it provides no sales or earnings figure. Item 19 states that the franchisor makes no representation about future franchisee performance or the past performance of franchised or company-owned outlets. That means there is no official Average Unit Volume, Gross Sales average, operating profit, EBITDA, net income, cash flow, owner compensation, median, quartile, or percentage-achieving result to publish. This is an official FDD fact for the 2026 offer, not an analytical conclusion. Source: Doc Popcorn 2026 FDD, Item 19, pp. 35–36.
The absence of an Item 19 claim is permitted. The FTC Consumer’s Guide to Buying a Franchise explains that franchisors are not required to provide potential sales or income data, but any financial performance representation they do make generally must appear in Item 19 and have a reasonable basis.
Revenue is not earnings
The strongest available revenue anchor below measures average receipts across a broad U.S. industry. It does not measure Doc Popcorn sales, and it does not measure owner take-home pay. Likewise, the IRS margin proxy is an aggregate corporate accounting result, not a store-level franchise profit disclosure.
Which unit population can be identified?
The current FDD identifies fixed PopKiosk and PopShop formats, but it does not provide format-level operating results. Item 20 reports 78 franchised outlets at the end of 2025 and no company-owned outlets for 2023 through 2025. Because no same-brand sales or profit cohort exists, the analysis cannot defensibly claim that a PopKiosk and a PopShop earn the same amount. The published range is therefore a broad fixed-location planning envelope, not a format-specific forecast. Sources: Doc Popcorn 2026 FDD, cover; Item 7, pp. 12–15; Item 20, pp. 36–39.
The official U.S. franchising page currently emphasizes Dippin’ Dots and Doc Popcorn co-brand opportunities. This article does not mix those co-brand economics with the standalone Doc Popcorn figures in the 2026 FDD.
Scenario model
How was the $31,000–$104,000 earnings range calculated?
The estimate multiplies three transparent revenue scenarios by three transparent margin scenarios. The central revenue anchor is the 2022 Economic Census average for employer establishments in NAICS 722515, Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars. The central margin is the 2022 IRS aggregate net-income ratio for corporations classified in the broader Food Services and Drinking Places category. The result is estimated annual pre-tax owner earnings for a manager-run fixed unit, not an official Doc Popcorn result.
Revenue anchor
$62.769 billion of 2022 receipts divided by 78,110 establishments equals $803,603 per establishment. The Census classification expressly includes fixed-location popcorn and other specialty snack bars, but also coffee shops, doughnut shops, ice cream parlors, and similar businesses.
Revenue spread
Conservative, Base, and Upside revenue are 80%, 100%, and 120% of the Census average: $642,882, $803,603, and $964,323. This spread is an editorial modeling assumption, not a Census or FDD distribution.
Margin anchor
IRS net income of $48.056 billion divided by total receipts of $617.565 billion equals 7.7815%. The scenario margins are 4.7815%, 7.7815%, and 10.7815%, using a transparent plus-or-minus three-percentage-point sensitivity.
Formula
Estimated manager-run pre-tax owner earnings = scenario revenue × scenario margin. Calculations use unrounded inputs and are rounded to the nearest $1,000 for publication.
Manager-run annual pre-tax owner earnings scenarios
The range reflects both revenue variation and a ±3 percentage-point margin sensitivity.
Interpretation: The base estimate is not labeled “most likely.” It is simply the central pairing of the Census revenue average and IRS margin proxy.
Sources: 2022 Economic Census profile for NAICS 722515; IRS Corporation Income Tax Returns Complete Report, 2022 Table 1. Values are independent calculations.
| Scenario | Revenue assumption | Margin assumption | Estimated earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $642,882 | 4.7815% | $30,739 |
| Base | $803,603 | 7.7815% | $62,532 |
| Upside | $964,323 | 10.7815% | $103,968 |
The Census benchmark is a closer structural match than a general restaurant average because NAICS 722515 specifically includes fixed-location popcorn bars. It is still broad: it does not isolate mall kiosks, inline shops, franchised businesses, Doc Popcorn locations, mature outlets, or a particular geography. The IRS population is broader still and aggregates corporations rather than franchised units. These limitations are the principal reason for the LIMITED confidence rating.
Owner role
How does owner involvement change the result?
An active owner may capture the economic value of the manager role, but that value is labor compensation, not additional passive profit. Item 15 recommends that the owner or a designated principal be the primary operator and devote substantial full-time daily effort. It also permits a trained designated manager who need not hold equity. The owner-operator scenarios therefore add the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 2024 national median pay of $65,310 for Food Service Managers to the manager-run residual. FDD source: Doc Popcorn 2026 FDD, Item 15, pp. 30–31.
Manager-run earnings versus owner-operator benefit
The $65,310 gap represents the market value of management labor performed by the owner.
Interpretation: The owner-operated figure combines residual business profit with the imputed value of a full-time management job. It should not be described as passive income, a salary guarantee, or a franchisor earnings claim.
Source for labor value: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Food Service Managers, 2024 median pay of $65,310. Scenario arithmetic is independent.
Owner-operator effect
In the base scenario, the modeled manager-run residual is about $62,500. Adding $65,310 of manager labor value produces an owner-operator benefit near $127,800. Roughly half of that amount compensates the owner for daily management work; it is not evidence that the unit itself generates $127,800 of passive profit.
Recurring obligations
Which FDD fees can materially change owner earnings?
The current recurring percentage burden is 9% of Gross Revenue before fixed technology and POS fees. Item 6 requires a 6% royalty and a 1% Advertising Fund contribution; Item 11 requires 2% of monthly Gross Revenue for local advertising. The Advertising Fund can increase to 2%, which would raise the combined percentage burden to 10%. Technology is $65 per month and the POS fee is up to $79 per month, or up to $1,728 annually together at current stated rates. These are official FDD obligations, not estimates. Sources: Doc Popcorn 2026 FDD, Item 6, pp. 7–12; Item 11, pp. 22–24.
| Recurring obligation | Current amount | How it enters the analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Royalty | 6% of Gross Revenue | Revenue-linked operating expense. |
| Advertising Fund | 1%; may rise to 2% | Revenue-linked expense with a contractual increase right. |
| Local advertising | 2% of Gross Revenue | Required local spend in addition to the fund. |
| Technology and POS | Up to $1,728 yearly | $65 monthly technology plus POS up to $79 monthly. |
| Minimum product purchases | $5,000 per 360 days | Purchase floor, not an added fee and not necessarily incremental to normal inventory. |
At the three revenue assumptions, 9% of revenue plus the stated maximum technology and POS fees equals approximately $59,600, $74,100, and $88,500 per year. This is a fee-burden lens, not a second deduction from the earnings scenarios. The IRS net-income proxy is already an all-in accounting margin after reported corporate deductions, although it does not isolate franchise fees. Subtracting the FDD fees again would risk double-counting. The unresolved question is whether a particular Doc Popcorn unit can absorb its royalty, advertising, occupancy, payroll, product, and other costs while still matching the broad IRS margin.
Definitions and uncertainty
What is included—and excluded—from “pre-tax owner earnings” here?
The manager-run estimate is a residual accounting proxy, not after-tax take-home pay. It is intended to represent cash-generating capacity after normal operating costs and recurring franchise obligations are economically reflected in the benchmark, but before personal income taxes and financing principal payments. Because the proxy comes from aggregate corporate returns rather than unit-level cash-flow statements, several accounting treatments remain imperfect.
- Manager compensation: treated as an operating expense in the manager-run scenario because the IRS corporate margin is after reported deductions. The exact compensation mix in the IRS population is not observable.
- Owner compensation: not separately disclosed. Some corporation returns may deduct officer or shareholder wages, so the benchmark is not a clean owner-distribution measure.
- Interest and depreciation: reflected within the broad IRS accounting result. A specific buyer’s debt structure and depreciable basis could differ substantially.
- Debt principal: excluded. The FDD states that the franchisor does not offer direct or indirect financing, so no uniform loan terms exist for a debt-service calculation.
- Capital expenditures: replacement cash outlays are not explicitly modeled; only the benchmark’s accounting depreciation is reflected. Technology upgrades and remodel obligations can reduce distributable cash.
- Personal taxes: excluded. Entity choice, state, deductions, and owner circumstances make after-tax take-home pay non-comparable.
What could move actual earnings outside the modeled range?
Location productivity and occupancy economics are the largest likely drivers, but the FDD provides no unit-level evidence to quantify them. A high-traffic mall kiosk, an inline shop, and a venue-based unit can have materially different rent structures, operating hours, staffing needs, average tickets, and seasonality.
- Sales density and traffic: annual receipts per square foot, conversion rate, average ticket, repeat purchases, and event or holiday concentration.
- Occupancy: base rent, percentage rent, common-area charges, utilities, storage, venue commissions, and required hours.
- Product economics: ingredient, packaging, freight, spoilage, discounts, and the effect of required suppliers. Item 8 estimates approved-source purchases at 30% to 50% of ongoing operating costs, not revenue.
- Labor model: owner coverage, manager salary, shift-lead coverage, local minimum wages, payroll taxes, workers’ compensation, and schedule intensity.
- Format: PopKiosk and PopShop investment ranges differ, but the FDD does not disclose separate revenue or margin cohorts.
- Financing and reinvestment: loan interest, principal, maintenance, equipment replacement, technology upgrades, and remodeling can reduce owner distributions.
Buyer verification
What should a buyer verify before relying on any earnings number?
Request unit-level evidence that converts revenue into owner cash flow for the exact format and owner role being considered. The FTC recommends reviewing Item 19 carefully, asking for written substantiation of any financial claim, and speaking with current and former franchisees. Because the 2026 Item 19 contains no performance representation, validation interviews and actual location records carry unusual weight.
- Confirm that the latest FDD and any quarterly amendments still contain the same Item 19 statement, fee schedule, format definitions, and Item 20 outlet counts.
- Ask the franchisor to identify, in writing, every sales, margin, break-even, labor, or income statement made during the sales process and where it appears in Item 19.
- Interview several current PopKiosk and PopShop operators separately about trailing-12-month Gross Revenue, cost of goods, payroll, occupancy, royalties, advertising, technology, maintenance, and owner hours.
- Ask former franchisees listed in Item 20 about closure or transfer reasons, seasonality, cash shortfalls, required reinvestment, and whether owner labor was essential.
- For an existing outlet, obtain tax returns, POS reports, bank deposits, payroll records, lease statements, and franchisor royalty reports for at least three full years and reconcile them.
- Build manager-run and owner-operated projections separately. Do not treat the value of the owner’s labor as passive profit or assume one unit’s result scales linearly to a portfolio.
Decision synthesis
What is the strongest defensible earnings takeaway?
The strongest defensible planning range is approximately $31,000 to $104,000 per year in manager-run pre-tax owner earnings for one fixed unit, with a central modeled result near $63,000. It is a limited-confidence, scenario-based estimate—not an official Doc Popcorn sales or profit disclosure. An owner who performs the manager role may realize total owner-operator benefit of roughly $96,000 to $169,000, but about $65,000 of that comparison is labor value.
The most important earnings driver is the relationship between location-level sales and occupancy/labor costs. The largest unresolved uncertainty is that the 2026 FDD discloses no sales or profit distribution for either PopKiosk or PopShop units. A buyer should therefore verify the latest Item 19, request written substantiation for every financial statement, and reconcile actual franchisee POS, payroll, lease, royalty, and tax records before treating any range as decision-grade.