This is an independent manager-run, pre-tax owner-earnings scenario for one mature U.S. Aqua-Tots Swim School. The base case is about $60,000. The 2026 Franchise Disclosure Document does not report franchisee profit or owner compensation; its strongest nationwide result is 2025 Gross Revenue, so earnings must be estimated rather than quoted as an official Aqua-Tots result.
2025 nationwide Item 19 cohort; revenue is not owner earnings.
Only 53 of 131 outlets, or 40%, met or exceeded the average.
6% royalty, 2% national advertising, and 2% local advertising before any cooperative.
$295 monthly software plus a $170 monthly technology fee.
Item 19 reporting cohort versus Item 20 year-end franchised outlets.
What does Aqua-Tots Item 19 actually measure?
It measures Gross Revenue, not operating profit, owner salary, distributions, EBITDA, or take-home pay. The official 2025 nationwide median was $1,008,577 and the average was $1,138,797 for the 131 franchised outlets included in the Item 19 table.
The FDD defines Gross Revenue as revenue from services performed or sold, less sales tax. The figures came from monthly point-of-sale reports and were not audited. The disclosure states that the studied outlets had operated at least 15 months, making this a seasoned-outlet cohort rather than a first-year ramp-up result.
| 2025 Item 19 cohort | Average Gross Revenue | Median Gross Revenue | Outlets |
|---|---|---|---|
| All U.S. outlets in the table | $1,138,797 | $1,008,577 | 131 |
| West large metropolitan areas in California | $2,687,841 | $2,453,970 | 8 |
| Northeast large metropolitan areas in MA, NJ, NY, and PA | $1,739,049 | $1,724,050 | 7 |
| All other U.S. regions | $1,009,985 | $958,825 | 116 |
How representative is the reporting cohort?
The cohort is broad geographically, but it is not the complete year-end outlet count shown in Item 20. Item 19 uses 131 outlets, while Item 20 reports 138 franchised outlets at December 31, 2025. Item 20 also shows seven franchised openings during 2025. The seven-outlet difference appears consistent with Item 19’s operating-age rule, but the FDD does not explicitly reconcile the two tables. That reconciliation should be requested with the written Item 19 substantiation.
The regional results also show substantial geographic dispersion. California large-metropolitan outlets reported a much higher median than the 116-outlet “all other regions” cohort. A buyer should not use the California result for a suburban or smaller-market site without location-specific evidence.
How is the annual owner-earnings range calculated?
The estimate combines the official nationwide median Gross Revenue with a broad government operating-margin proxy. It produces manager-run pre-tax owner earnings of about $24,000 in the Conservative scenario, $60,000 in the Base scenario, and $108,000 in the Upside scenario.
- Revenue anchor—official plus scenario spread: Base revenue equals the 2025 FDD median of $1,008,577. Conservative and Upside revenue are explicit analytical assumptions at 80% and 120% of that median: $806,862 and $1,210,292. The FDD does not report these two scenario values.
- Margin anchor—external benchmark: IRS 2022 Publication 16 reports aggregate net income of $4.152 billion on $70.064 billion of total receipts for Educational Services corporations, implying a 5.93% net-income margin. This category is broader than swim instruction.
- Margin sensitivity—scenario assumption: The model applies 2.93%, 5.93%, and 8.93%, or three percentage points below and above the IRS proxy. These margins are analytical sensitivities, not Aqua-Tots results.
- No double-counting of franchise fees: The IRS margin is treated as an all-in operating proxy. The 6% royalty, 2% national advertising, 2% local advertising, salaries, rent, interest, depreciation, and other normal costs are therefore not subtracted again in the scenario calculation.
| Scenario | Modeled revenue | Modeled net margin | Manager-run pre-tax owner earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $806,862 | 2.93% | $24,000 |
| Base | $1,008,577 | 5.93% | $60,000 |
| Upside | $1,210,292 | 8.93% | $108,000 |
Annual pre-tax owner earnings before financing principal and personal income taxes.
Interpretation: Revenue and margin move together in this sensitivity range; the Base case is a modeling midpoint, not a prediction or “most likely” result.
Sources: 2026 Aqua-Tots FDD, Item 19, pp. 47–49; IRS Corporation Income Tax Returns Complete Report, 2022 Table 5.1. Calculations use full-precision inputs and are rounded to the nearest $1,000.
How does owner involvement change the result?
An active owner who genuinely replaces a paid general manager could receive an estimated owner-operator benefit of about $129,000–$214,000, with a Base scenario near $166,000. That amount is not pure business profit: approximately $105,770 represents the market value of management labor performed by the owner.
The 2026 FDD requires the franchisee to participate personally for at least the first 12 months. The school must always be under the direct supervision of a Certified Operator who devotes full business time and effort to management. The Certified Operator does not have to hold equity, so a later manager-run structure is contractually contemplated, subject to the agreement and operating standards.
The right-hand marker adds a $105,770 annualized BLS median general-and-operations-manager wage to the residual business result.
Interpretation: Owner operation can materially increase total economic benefit only when the owner performs work that otherwise requires paid management. The added amount is compensation for labor, not passive return on capital.
Sources: 2026 Aqua-Tots FDD, Item 15, p. 43; BLS May 2025 national occupational wage data. The BLS median hourly wage of $50.85 for General and Operations Managers is annualized at 2,080 hours to $105,770.
Which costs can move Aqua-Tots owner earnings most?
Sales volume, labor, occupancy, and the required percentage-based fees are the largest visible drivers. The FDD provides the franchise fee schedule, but it does not disclose franchisee payroll, rent, utilities, insurance, pool maintenance, or full operating margins.
| Recurring obligation | FDD amount | Owner-earnings treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Royalty Fee | 6% of Gross Revenue | Direct percentage reduction in unit economics under the stated current schedule. |
| National Advertising | 2% of Gross Revenue | Required monthly payment. |
| Local advertising | 2% of annual Gross Revenue | Required local spend based on the preceding year; qualifying PPC can count toward it. |
| Advertising cooperative | Up to 2% | Additional potential burden if implemented in the metropolitan area. |
| Software and Technology Fee | $5,580 per year currently | $295 plus $170 monthly; the technology component may rise to $850 monthly. |
| Computer and communications upgrades | Usually no more than $3,000 yearly | Variable maintenance or upgrade expense when required. |
At the official nationwide median Gross Revenue, the stated 6% royalty plus 2% national and 2% local advertising requirements equal approximately $100,858 per year, before current software and technology fees and before any advertising cooperative. This is a same-FDD calculation, not a profit estimate. Item 6 also notes that fees have not been imposed uniformly in every historical franchise arrangement, so a buyer must model the exact offered agreement.
The FDD’s $1,619,820–$2,939,590 single-unit initial-investment range is not an annual expense and is not subtracted from one year of sales. Financing costs depend on the buyer’s loan structure; the franchisor states in Item 10 that it does not provide or guarantee financing.
What is included in the earnings estimate—and what is not?
The scenario estimates pre-tax business earnings after normal operating expenses, not personal take-home pay. Its accounting treatment is intentionally stated so revenue, labor compensation, financing, and taxes are not collapsed into one number.
- Gross Revenue
- The FDD-defined top-line sales measure, less sales tax. It is the official Aqua-Tots figure used as the revenue anchor.
- Manager-run pre-tax owner earnings
- Residual business result after the all-in IRS operating-cost proxy. Manager payroll, officer compensation, interest, and depreciation are treated as included in that proxy.
- Owner-operator benefit
- Manager-run residual earnings plus the estimated market value of management labor personally supplied by the owner. It is not pure profit and is not passive income.
- Debt service
- Interest is embedded in the IRS margin proxy. Financing principal is excluded and must be modeled separately for the buyer’s actual loan amount, rate, and term.
- Capital expenditure
- Depreciation is embedded in the proxy, but cash spending for replacement equipment, major pool work, remodeling, or other capital projects is not separately forecast.
- Personal taxes and distributions
- Excluded. Federal, state, and local tax outcomes depend on entity structure, deductions, jurisdiction, and owner circumstances. Distributions are a use of available cash, not a separate operating-profit measure.
The IRS benchmark is based on corporation tax-return aggregates, not Aqua-Tots franchisee profit-and-loss statements. The 2022 Economic Census Educational Services tables provide industry structure, but neither the Census nor IRS data isolate this brand’s indoor-pool operating model.
What should a prospective owner verify before relying on this range?
Verify actual unit-level expenses and the Item 19 cohort before treating any scenario as decision-ready. The most useful evidence will come from written substantiation and comparable franchisee profit-and-loss statements, not another top-line sales claim.
- Request Item 19 written substantiation. Ask the franchisor to reconcile the 131 outlets in Item 19 with the 138 franchised outlets in Item 20 and identify every age, geography, closure, transfer, and reporting exclusion.
- Interview franchisees in comparable markets. Ask for annual sales, instructor payroll, manager payroll, rent, common-area charges, utilities, pool chemicals, repairs, insurance, advertising, royalty, and technology costs.
- Separate owner labor from business profit. Confirm whether the owner will serve as the Certified Operator, how many weekly hours that entails, and which salaried position is genuinely eliminated.
- Test local occupancy and labor. A 6,000-square-foot-or-larger indoor swim school can have materially different rent, energy, water, maintenance, and wage economics across U.S. markets.
- Model financing outside operating earnings. Use the actual financed amount, interest rate, term, fees, and principal schedule. Do not present debt-funded cash flow as the same measure as unit operating profit.
- Compare median and average carefully. Only 40% of the Item 19 cohort met or exceeded the nationwide average, so the $1,008,577 median is the more defensible central revenue anchor for this analysis.
What is the strongest defensible takeaway?
A reasonable evidence-led range is approximately $24,000–$108,000 of annual manager-run pre-tax owner earnings per mature U.S. unit, with a $60,000 Base scenario. This is scenario-based, not an official Aqua-Tots earnings disclosure. An active owner who replaces a paid general manager may receive a larger total owner-operator benefit—about $129,000–$214,000—but roughly $105,770 of that difference is compensation for work performed.
The most important driver is the combination of local Gross Revenue and the operating margin left after labor, occupancy, pool costs, and the franchise fee schedule. The largest unresolved uncertainty is the absence of same-brand franchisee expense or profit data in Item 19. Before investing, a buyer should obtain the Item 19 substantiation, reconcile its cohort with Item 20, and test the model against comparable franchisee financial statements and interviews.
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